Build a What-If Scenario

A scenario is a saved set of assumptions layered on top of your live forecast. You start from the base case, add one or more adjustments (the levers — a revenue change, a contract win, a headcount shift, an acquisition), compute it, and read the projected impact against the base. This guide walks the full path: create a scenario, tune its levers, compute it, and compare the result to your base case.

Where it lives

Open Toolsets → Simulation → Scenarios.

The page opens on the scenarios tab. Three tabs run across the top: scenarios (where you build and compute), compare (side-by-side results), and covenants (debt covenant stress test). A Tour button sits to the left of the tabs if you want a guided walkthrough first.

tip

Every scenario is measured against the base case. The base scenario carries a BASE badge and cannot be edited or deleted — it is your live forecast, untouched. Everything you build sits on top of it.

Step 1 — Create the scenario

1. On the scenarios tab, click New Scenario (top right, under the Scenario Planning heading).
2. In the form that opens, fill in Name — for example Optimistic Growth. A Description field is optional.
3. Click Create. The button reads Creating... while it saves, then the new scenario appears as a card in the list. If the save fails, the reason appears beside Create and nothing is added.

If you have no scenarios yet, the page shows a No scenarios yet empty state with a Create Scenario button that opens the same form.

The new card starts with no COMPUTED badge and shows 0 adjs — it has no levers on it yet. That is what Step 2 fixes.

Step 2 — Open the scenario and add your first lever

Each scenario card has a row of quick actions on the right. To adjust assumptions, click the gear icon (Edit adjustments). This opens a side drawer titled with the scenario's name.

Inside the drawer:

1. Under the Adjustments heading, click Add Adjustment.
2. A New Adjustment form appears. Pick a Type from the dropdown and give it a Label / Description — a short name you will recognize later (for example, Win DHS IDIQ).
3. Fill in the type-specific fields (detailed below).
4. Click Add Adjustment. A confirmation appears and the lever is added to the list.

You can stack as many adjustments as the scenario needs — each one is an independent lever. To change one later, hover its row and use the pencil (edit) or the X (remove).

note

The base scenario has no Add Adjustment button. Levers only apply to scenarios you create.

The levers you can pull

The Type dropdown exposes ten adjustment types. Each reveals its own fields when selected:

• Revenue Change — a percentage or dollar change to revenue. Optionally tag it with a specific Contract; that labels the assumption, it does not narrow it. Set Change Type to Percentage (%) or Dollar ($) and enter the Amount (%) or Amount ($). It applies to every forecast year at the full amount: this type has no Fiscal Year field, and the Start Month / End Month it shows are not read.
• New Contract Win — model landing new work. Enter Contract Name, Division, Client/Agency, Annual Revenue ($), GP %, Start Date, End Date, and Probability (%). Picking a Division fills GP % from that division's target margin for the year; change it if the bid's margin differs. If the opportunity is already in your pipeline, pick it from the Pipeline Opportunity (auto-fills the fields below) dropdown to populate the fields automatically.
• Contract Loss — subtract work you might not keep. Choose the Contract and enter the Annual Revenue ($) to remove and an optional Loss Date.
• Indirect Headcount Change — indirect staff only; direct billable heads are modeled through the contract levers. Set Change Type to Add Headcount or Remove Headcount, enter the Number of Heads, the Avg Loaded Cost ($) per head, and a Start Month.
• Indirect Labor % Change — enter a Rate Change (%), the percent change to indirect labor (-10 cuts it by 10%). The form also asks for a Pool and an Effective Month; neither is read, so the change applies to all indirect labor for the whole year.
• M&A Acquisition — model an acquisition. Enter Target Name, Acquisition Date, Target Annual Revenue ($), Target GP %, Purchase Price ($), and Integration Cost ($). If the deal is in your workspace, pick it from the M&A Deal (auto-fills the fields below) dropdown to prefill.
• Pricing Change — a Cost Change ($) with an Effective Month; a positive amount raises cost. The Contract you pick labels it; the change is applied company-wide.
• Bonus Pool Change — a Change to Bonus Pool ($). Enter the change, not the new total: a negative number cuts the pool, and several bonus adjustments in one scenario add together. It replaces the automatic bonus recalculation from gross profit.
• One-Time Item — a single event. Give it an Item Name, choose a Category (Revenue, Cost, or Below-the-line), enter the Amount ($), and set the Month.
• Market Condition — a broad shift. Name it (Condition Name), then set Revenue Impact (%) and Cost Impact (%). Its Start Month, End Month and Value (primary %) are not read.

Every type except Revenue Change also accepts a Fiscal Year. Leave it blank to apply the lever to every forecast year, or give a year to confine it to that year.

Scope fields label a lever; they do not narrow it

Several levers collect a Contract, a Division or a Pool. Only Contract Loss reads its contract; everything else is modeled company-wide. The base P&L is consolidated and no lever is division- or contract-scoped, so those fields change what a lever is called, not what it computes.

They record the operator's intent, and the division on a contract win seeds its margin. Read every result as a company-wide number. The division picker's unset option reads Not specified rather than All Divisions for the same reason.

The full list of which fields are collected-but-not-honored, and why, is in the Scenario Planning user guide — it is maintained there so there is only one copy to keep true.

tip

When you select a Pipeline Opportunity or an M&A Deal, the form marks the prefilled fields as auto-filled. Every field stays editable — override anything the auto-fill got wrong before saving.

Step 3 — Compute the scenario

Adjustments describe your assumptions; computing turns them into projected numbers.

• From the scenario card, click the play icon (Compute scenario), or
• From inside the drawer, click Compute in the footer.

While it runs, the button shows a spinner. On success you get a Scenario computed confirmation and the card gains a COMPUTED badge. If it fails, you get a Compute failed message — check your adjustments and try again.

Once computed, the card surfaces two headline numbers on the right: Rev Impact and Net P&L, each colored green for positive and red for negative. Open the drawer to see three fuller KPI cards: Revenue Impact, Cost Impact, and Net P&L Impact.

caution

Recompute after every change. Editing a lever does not automatically update the projected numbers — the COMPUTED results reflect the assumptions as of the last compute. Change a lever, then compute again.

Step 4 — Read the impact vs. the base case

The scenarios tab gives you the headline deltas per card. For the full picture, switch to the compare tab.

1. Click the compare tab.
2. Under Select scenarios:, click the chips for the scenarios you want — include your new one. You need at least two selected; the page prompts Select at least 2 scenarios until you do. (A chip toggles off with a second click.)
3. The comparison renders once at least two computed scenarios are selected.

What you see:

• P&L Comparison — a table with Line Item down the side, a Base column, and for each selected scenario its value plus a Delta column showing the change against the base. Line items include Revenue, Gross Profit, EBITDA, and Net Income. Toggle Show differences only to hide rows that do not move. Use the view switch to see the 5-Year Total or drill in By Year.
• EBITDA & Net Income Trend — a line chart of each scenario's trajectory over the forecast years.
• Cash & LOC Impact — a table covering Operating Cash Flow, LOC Drawn, Ending Cash Balance, and LOC Headroom, again with Base and Delta columns.

Positive deltas render in teal, negative in red, so the direction of each swing reads at a glance. For a distraction-free read, click Full Screen to expand the comparison.

note

If the comparison reports no computed results, go back to the scenarios tab and compute the scenarios first — comparison reads from computed output, not from the raw adjustments.

After the scenario plays out

When reality resolves a bet you modeled, record it. On the scenario card, click the trophy icon (Record win/loss outcome) to open the Record Outcome drawer. Set the Outcome to Won or Lost, set the Date, enter the actual Revenue Impact ($), add any Notes, and click Record Outcome.

The same drawer lists the scenario's Recorded outcomes, newest first, so what you entered can be read back. Before the first one it reads None yet. The first outcome you record appears here. If it reads Could not load the recorded outcomes for this scenario., the list failed to load; it does not mean nothing was recorded.

Useful shortcuts

• Duplicate — click the copy icon (Duplicate scenario) on a card to clone it, levers and all, as a starting point for a variant.
• Rename inline — inside the drawer, click the scenario name or description to edit it in place. If the save fails, the field stays open with what you typed.
• Delete — non-base scenarios show a trash icon (Delete scenario); it asks for confirmation before removing the scenario and its adjustments. A delete that fails says so beside Create, rather than leaving a card that simply did not disappear.