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Checked against the product · 2026-10-05

Pipeline Stage Probabilities — Admin Guide

One Admin tab sets the default win probability applied to an opportunity by its stage. It is a small page with a large reach: every weighted pipeline figure in Arcvue runs through it.

Unusually for a configuration screen, this one tells you when it is incomplete — it names the stages it is guessing about. That makes it easy to get right, and the only real mistake is silencing the warning without doing the work.

For: administrators, with input from whoever owns the pipeline · Time: ~10 minutes once, then a minute whenever your CRM gains a stage · You'll need: an opinion on how likely a win is at each of your stages.

How to access​

Admin → Stage Probabilities.

Part 1 — It uses your stage names, not ours​

The stage list is not built in. Arcvue reads the distinct stage values actually present in your pipeline and offers those. Your stages come from your CRM as free text, so whatever you call them is what appears here.

This is deliberate. A built-in list of stage names would be wrong for most firms, and asking you to map your process onto someone else's vocabulary is the wrong trade. If a stage you use is missing from this page, it is because no opportunity in your pipeline currently carries it — not because Arcvue does not support it.

Each row holds three things:

ColumnHolds
Stage (acquisition status)The stage name, exactly as your pipeline emits it
Win probability %The default likelihood of a win at that stage
NotesWhy you chose that number — optional, and worth using

Use the Notes column. A probability with no reasoning behind it is a number the next person will either trust blindly or change blindly. One line about how it was derived is enough.

Part 2 — Unmapped stages, and the fallback​

Any stage without a row here is weighted at a single flat fallback percentage, and the page states that percentage in its own description.

When stages are unmapped, an amber panel appears and does three things properly:

  1. Says how many stages are unmapped
  2. Names them, and states the percentage they are currently weighted at
  3. Offers Add all unmapped stages to create a row for each

On a tenant where this page has never been configured, every stage is at the fallback — which means your weighted pipeline is one flat percentage applied to everything, from first contact through to a proposal awaiting award. It will look like a real number and it will not distinguish an early lead from a near-certain win.

The one mistake to avoid​

"Add all unmapped stages" seeds each new row at the fallback percentage. So clicking it, saving, and stopping there removes the amber warning and changes nothing at all — every stage still carries the same number it had when it was unmapped.

The warning disappearing is not the same as the stages being configured. The button exists to save you typing the stage names, not to make the decision. After you click it, go down the list and set real percentages, then save.

Part 3 — Choosing the numbers​

There is no correct answer Arcvue can supply, but two properties are worth holding to:

  • They should increase as a deal advances. If an early stage carries a higher probability than a late one, that is either a data problem or a process worth looking at.
  • They should be defensible. These weight the pipeline figures people plan against, so a number chosen to make a total look better is a number that will mislead somebody — probably you, a quarter from now.

Revisit them when your win rate materially changes, and whenever your CRM introduces a stage. A new stage arrives silently and lands on the fallback, so the amber panel is the thing that tells you — which is a good reason to glance at this page when the pipeline changes shape.

Each row carries a control named Remove stage. It removes the mapping, not the stage itself — the stage keeps existing in your pipeline and simply falls back to the default probability until you map it again.

Part 4 — When something looks wrong​

"A stage we use isn't listed." No opportunity in your pipeline currently has that stage. It will appear once one does.

"I clicked Add all unmapped stages and my forecast didn't change." Correct — the rows were created at the fallback percentage. Set real numbers on each and save.

"The amber panel came back." Your CRM has produced a stage that has no row yet. The panel names it; add it and set a probability.

"Everything is weighted the same." Either the page has never been configured or the rows were seeded and left at the fallback. Set them individually.

"My changes didn't take effect." They are not saved until you save them.

One-line summary​

This page maps your own stage names — read from your live pipeline, never a built-in list — to a default win probability, and anything unmapped is weighted at a single flat fallback. The amber panel names exactly which stages are being guessed at, so the page tells you when it is wrong. The one mistake is clicking "Add all unmapped stages" and stopping: that seeds every row at the fallback, so it silences the warning without changing a single number. Set real percentages, record why in Notes, and revisit whenever your CRM adds a stage.